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亚非崛起 缔造世界新秩序

  

  

       亚非崛起 缔造世界新秩序   

   

    

在过去两年中,主要的自由贸易集团协议谈判已在亚洲与非洲成功进行,这或将改变现有的以西方主导的世界秩序。

 

1990年代,随着苏联解体,欧美国家联合起来建立了强大的区域贸易集团。这些贸易区降低了贸易壁垒,理顺了法规,将贸易伙伴的经济紧密联系在一起,让货物得以自由流通。同时也使得整个贸易集团具有更强大的谈判能力,让本土的公司得以成长为全球冠军,并为其他国家制定国际标准。

 

当时形成的主要多边自由贸易集团之一是南方共同市场(Mercosur)。这是一个由巴西牵头、4个国家在1991年创立的南美贸易同盟。1993年,最早有12个欧洲国家批准了组成欧盟的条约,如今该条约已有28个成员国。1994年,由美国领导的北美自由贸易区(NAFTA,不久后更名为USMCA)成立,这将美加自由贸易协定的范围扩大到了墨西哥。欧盟和北美自由贸易协定内的自由贸易区,其规模和经济实力均优于其他自由贸易区。

 

近年来,贸易平衡已逐渐转移到发展中国家,特别是亚洲国家。 2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)之后,中国开始主导世界贸易。到2017年,中国在全球制造业总产值中所占的份额上升到28.22%,而美国则仅占17.23%。中国成为世界大部分地区的主要商品供应国。截至2018年,有174个国家从中国进口的商品量大于美国,而只有51个国家从美国进口的商品量大于中国。

 

2010年代初,在中国开始“一带一路”倡议的同时,有关亚洲和非洲新贸易集团的谈判也开始了。中国投资了大量基础设施,通过公路、港口和铁路,将发展中国家连接在一起,与此同时,能使货物在这些国家之间自由流通的协议也开始成形。截至2019年,关于两个新的自由贸易区的谈判已经结束。这些新的贸易同盟拥有重塑全球经济结构的力量。

 

新的贸易协定首推区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)。它由东盟10个国家(文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南)及其5个主要贸易伙伴组成。它们由该贸易集团最大的经济体中国领导,同时还囊括了韩国、日本、澳大利亚和新西兰。如果以人口和国内生产总值衡量,即使除去目前还拒绝加入的印度,该集团也是世界上最大的自由贸易区。它所涉及的人口超过22亿,国内生产总值(GDP)超过24万亿美元。预计RCEP成员国将在2020年批准并签署该协定。

 

其次是非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)。该协议于2018年确立,现已覆盖整个非洲55个国家中的54个,只有厄立特里亚尚未同意加入。如果按国家数和覆盖面积衡量,它是全球最大的自由贸易区。这个自由贸易集团覆盖的总人口为13亿,是全球人口第二大的贸易集团,并且预计到2050年人口将增长到25亿。其目前的GDP总计为2.3万亿美元。AfCTA已于2019530日生效。

 

中国在上述两项协议中都发挥了重要作用。据称,中国是AfCFTA协议的牵线者。中国是除少数国家外的几乎所有非洲国家最大的贸易伙伴,在达成协议之前,中国已与非洲大陆40多个国家签署了双边贸易协定。虽然许多低成本制造业从中国迁至东南亚,令不少东南亚国家从中受益,但这些国家很快也将变得太过昂贵,非洲将成为未来制造业转移的目标国。

 

亚洲和非洲的发展中国家正在联合创建贸易同盟,借此与欧洲和美洲数十年前建立的贸易同盟分庭抗礼。世界似乎正在被划分为强大的区域自由贸易区。如果成功,新协定将使其成员国拥有更强有力的谈判能力,使本土企业成长为全球冠军,并为其他追随者制定国际标准。

(翻译/季羚)

  

  

  

  以下为英文版
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             The new world order, rise of Asia and Africa         

 

Over the last two years major free trade bloc agreements have been successfully negotiated in Asia and Africa. They have the potential to challenge the established western world order.

 

In 1990s, as the Soviet Union disintegrated, European and American countries combined to create powerful regional trading blocs. These trading zones lowered trade barriers, streamlined regulations, bounded the economies of trading partners together and enabled the free flow of goods. This allowed trading blocs to have bigger negotiation power, enable local corporations to grow into global champions, and create international standards for others to follow. 

 

The major multilateral free-trade blocs formed at that time include Mercosur, also called the Southern Common Market. It is Brazil led 4 country South American trade bloc created in 1991. In 1993, initially 12 European countries ratified a treaty forming the European Union (EU) that today has 28 country members. And in 1994, the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA, soon to be renamed USMCA) led by United States was established. It expanded US-Canada free trade agreement to include Mexico. EU and NAFTA free trade zones were superior to others with their scale and economic power.

 

Over the years balance of trade has shifted to developing countries especially in Asia. Following accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 China begun to dominate trade. By 2017, China’s share of global manufacturing output rose to 28.22%, while the United States produced 17.23%. China became the leading goods supplier to most of the world. By 2018 it exported more than the US to 174 countries while the US was the larger supplier to just 51.

 

In early 2010s, at the same time as China begun its One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, negotiations began on new trading blocs in Asia and Africa. While, China invested in infrastructure to connect developing countries together by roads, ports, and railroads, agreements to enable free flow of goods between these countries begun to take shape. By 2019, negotiations on two new free trade zones have been concluded. These new trading blocs have the power to rewrite global economic power structure.

 

The new trading agreements are lead by Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which combines 10 countries of ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) and its 5 major trading partners. They are led by China, which is the largest economy of the trading bloc, and also include Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. This grouping, even without India which has declined to join at this time, is the world’s largest free trade area when measured by both population and GDP. It has population of over 2.2 billion people and combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over 24 trillion dollars. RCEP member countries are expected to ratify and sign the agreement in 2020.

 

The second major agreement is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It was finalized in 2018 and today it covers 54 of 55 countries in the whole of Africa. Only Eritrea has not agreed to join yet. It is the single largest Free Trade Zone when measured by number of countries and the area covered. The bloc has a combined population of 1.3 billion people, which is the second largest of all trading blocs, with expectation to grow to 2.5 billion by 2050. Its current combined GDP comes to 2.3 trillion dollars. On May 30, 2019, AfCTA entered into force

 

China has played major role in both agreements. It is said to be the broker of the AfCFTA agreement. China is the largest trading partner of all but handful of African countries and prior to the agreement it had signed bilateral trade agreements with more than 40 countries on the African continent. While Southeast Asian countries have benefited from low cost manufacturing that has moved out of China, those nations will soon become too expensive and it is Africa that stands to become the recipient of manufacturing relocation in the future.

 

Developing countries in Asia and Africa are combining to create trading blocs to rival those established decades earlier in Europe and Americas. The world appears to be dividing into powerful regional free-trade zones. If successful, the new agreements will allow its member countries to have bigger negotiation power, enable local corporations to grow into global champions, and create international standards for others to follow.

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